Know/Think/Hope

"No one knows anything."

When legendary screenwriter William Goldman dropped this truth bomb about Hollywood, he wasn't being cynical—he was being honest. Despite all the research, despite all the experience, despite all the algorithms, predicting what will capture hearts and open wallets remains stubbornly resistant to certainty.

And yet, here we are in the advertising world, selling certainty like it's the new creative.

The truth is, today’s clients aren’t buying ideas—they’re buying insurance policies.

Certainty is king. Data is gospel. Creativity? It gets to come along for the ride — if it wears a seatbelt and submits a risk assessment.

Welcome to The 80/17/3 Reality

Today's successful new business pitch typically follows this formula:

80% KNOW:

The agency says…"Here’s the customer data, the category data, the culture data, the product data and…here's the data proving our approach works. Also, here’s the technology that will place our beige mediocrity to the right customer, at the right place, at the right time. Now we know everything except if it will work 100%, 100% of the time."

17% THINK:

The agency says…"Now, based on all of our knowledge (and as you’ve seen, we have plenty), we think this strategy and one of these three creative executions will accelerate your growth."

3% HOPE:

The agency says…“Not that it really matters based on all the data we have, but we were joking before the meeting that wouldn’t it be great if one of these executions becomes a pop culture and immortal hit? But there’s no data for that, so let’s just focus back on what we know.”

And a traipse through the ad trades shows the results of this formula on new business wins over the last 18 months. Job well done.

The Golden Era: 30/50/20

But let's rewind to what I'll call the "research era" before big data dominated everything. The formula looked more like this:

30% KNOW: "Here's what research tells us."

50% THINK: "Here's our theory on how to solve your problem and a couple of executions that shoudl wrok gangbusters.”

20% HOPE: "The more risk we take, well, the more reward that’s out there. (Failure? Maybe. But not likely. And if so, we can recover quickly.) LFG!

And what did this formula produce? Oh, just some stuff like this:

- Volkswagen's "Think Small"

- Apple's "1984"

- Snickers' "You're Not You When You're Hungry"

- Cadbury's “Gorilla”

-Old Spice’s “The Man Your Man Can Smell Like”

You know, just some of the most iconic, business-transforming advertising in history. No big deal.

Finding Your Balance

Now, am I suggesting we return completely to the 30/50/20 model? I'm not that naïve. The data genie is out of the bottle, and frankly, so much of that calculus ooze is incredibly valuable.

What I am suggesting is this: Every pitch needs all three elements: KNOW/THINK/HOPE. The real question is proportion.

So ask yourself these questions before your next pitch:

1. What do we KNOW? (The facts, the data, the certainties).

2. What do we THINK? (The theories, the hypotheses, the informed perspectives).

3. What are we HOPING for? (The moonshots, the culture-creators, the fame-makers).

Then, figure out what kind of client you're pitching:

-Risk-Averse Avatar (loves the 80/17/3 ratio).

-Steady Steward (prefers something closer to 60/30/10).

-Legacy Leader (might go for 40/40/20).

The Hard Truth

Here's the thing: If you're only selling what you KNOW, you're really just selling research. If you're only focused on what you THINK, you're selling strategy. And if you're only pitching what you HOPE, you're selling dreams.

Look at your current pitch. What percentage is KNOW? What percentage is THINK? What percentage Is HOPE?

Now map that to the client.

Break a leg…